Basketball on the brain (Part Two)
Last post I looked at my love for the Suns and their style of play. This time I would like to look at what I think makes for a winning basketball team.
Does defense win championships? Is offense only good for selling tickets?
Well, lets go back to the basics.
Q. How do you win a basketball game?
A. Score more points than the other team. Winning by 1 pt or 50 pts still counts as a win.
Q. How can we break down this concept of scoring?
A. Commonly we break it down by the simple formula of:
Attempts x Field Goal % = Points Scored
Actually, with three pointers and foul shots the calculation gets a little more complicated but would look something like:
(Free Throw Attempts x Free Throw %) + ((2 pt Attempts x 2 pt Field Goal %) x 2pts) + ((3 pt Attempts x 2pt Field Goal %) x 3pts) = Total Points scored
Q. How can the number of attempts affected?
A. The default game would have each team get 1 attempt for every attempt of the opponent.
The following factors cause this to deviate in every game:
Q. How can the shooting percentage be affected?
A. The two key factors here is shot selection and the skill of the player taking the shot. By shot selection, I mean that certain types of shots are easier than other types of shots. For example, a dunk or uncontested layup is close to 100% at the NBA level. The shot selection degrades the further away from the basket the shot is taken, and by the obstacles that are in the way of getting the shot off (meaning the defensive presence).
Offenses can improve the shot selection by getting moving the ball to players in better positions to take shots. Often this translates into hustle with and without the ball, footwork, positioning, and passing.
Skill is also obviously a factor. That skill like most can get honed by practice. Stature and athletic ability certainly help or hinder the skill of the player taking the shot. All skill is not the same. A particular player may be good playing close to the basket with his back to it (i.e. posting up). Another player may be better facing the basket, driving and slashing to get a good shot. Others may be good jump shooters able to hit shots from farther away.
This is all obvious, or it should be, yet it seems these fundamentals are often missed by the so called commentators.
Comments that imply that the Suns "don't play defense" seems ridiculous. If they win the game, obviously they played more defense than the team they beat. True it may be that the Suns offense skill offset the "greater" defensive prowess of the opposing team but who can say.
Obviously, I don't care how good your defense is if you can't score yourself.
The trick is that basketball is a two way sport. Unlike football, players must play both offense and defense. They don't have the luxury except at the end of a game with unused timeouts to try to substitute between positions to put in better defensive players on defense, and better offensive players on offense. They must choose a player whose net offense minus their net defense is a plus to the team. Of course, it gets a lot more complicated in that the net of the teams offense must be greater than the net of the teams defense (i.e. as 5 man unit do they outscore their opponent).
This means that they need players who will do enough to help their team get more attempts than their opponent, shoot better (taking better shots or with better skill) than their opponent.
Lots of things affect this, but psychology is probably the biggest factor. Teams that are winning tend to let down. Teams that are losing tend to try harder. The result is that even though you have completely different teams, with different players, talents, and team philosophies can play for 48 minutes and end tied or nearly so at the end.
Applying this to the Suns, we can easily see their success. They lead the league (or are near the top) in shooting percentage, three point shooting, and free throw percentages. This is a combination of getting high percentage shots from fast breaks (dunks to open uncontested jump shots) or from the great play making ability and unselfishness of their players. Defensively their opponents shoot an average percentage (actually as of today, they are in the top half of the league in opponent field goal percentage), but they often get more shot attempts because the Suns take shots quicker. This translates to their opponents scoring a lot of points, but look at the shooting percentage.
Against, Dallas the shooting percentage differences were amazing. Dallas was only in the game because they took an amazing 16 more shots than Phoenix.
This then seems to be the Achilles heel of the Suns standard style of play: defensive rebounding. Other teams can not beat the Suns typically on field goal percentage but they can beat them in the number of attempts.
The Suns can help themselves by forcing more turnovers and making steals, and cutting down on their own mistakes. Still they need to stay close in the rebounding stat. When they do, the other team is in big trouble.
This season the Suns have done a better job at defensive rebounding when Amare, Marion, and Kurt Thomas get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, D'Antoni has often failed to play Thomas sufficient minutes due to match ups or wanting to play faster. I think this is a mistake. Kurt Thomas has a positive net affect for his team by shoring up the rebounding and defensive side of the ball. Even though Kurt is not going to beat you down the court for a fast break, he can start a fast break by getting the rebound. If you look at 82games.com you will see his net affect on and off the court. I believe the numbers might be slightly lower due to who else is on the floor for some of his time.
Diaw has been getting Thomas' time, but his skills often over lap with Amare's and Steve's. He certainly can not make up for what Thomas brings to the table. His last several performances have been abysmal when it comes to rebounding.
Next time, I will pontificate on how I would handle the Sun's player rotation.
Does defense win championships? Is offense only good for selling tickets?
Well, lets go back to the basics.
Q. How do you win a basketball game?
A. Score more points than the other team. Winning by 1 pt or 50 pts still counts as a win.
Q. How can we break down this concept of scoring?
A. Commonly we break it down by the simple formula of:
Attempts x Field Goal % = Points Scored
Actually, with three pointers and foul shots the calculation gets a little more complicated but would look something like:
(Free Throw Attempts x Free Throw %) + ((2 pt Attempts x 2 pt Field Goal %) x 2pts) + ((3 pt Attempts x 2pt Field Goal %) x 3pts) = Total Points scored
Q. How can the number of attempts affected?
A. The default game would have each team get 1 attempt for every attempt of the opponent.
The following factors cause this to deviate in every game:
- Clock management at the end of quarters might mean 1 team has an additional possession.
- The shot clock expiration may reduce attempts.
- Rebounds mean more attempts.
- Steals and forced turnovers mean more attempts.
- Offensive fouls mean less attempts.
- Shot blocks may mean less attempts. (NOTE: blocking a shot helps by keeping the ball away from the basket, but unless the blocking team recovers the ball or one of the other factors kick in the offensive team will still have an attempt)
Q. How can the shooting percentage be affected?
A. The two key factors here is shot selection and the skill of the player taking the shot. By shot selection, I mean that certain types of shots are easier than other types of shots. For example, a dunk or uncontested layup is close to 100% at the NBA level. The shot selection degrades the further away from the basket the shot is taken, and by the obstacles that are in the way of getting the shot off (meaning the defensive presence).
Offenses can improve the shot selection by getting moving the ball to players in better positions to take shots. Often this translates into hustle with and without the ball, footwork, positioning, and passing.
Skill is also obviously a factor. That skill like most can get honed by practice. Stature and athletic ability certainly help or hinder the skill of the player taking the shot. All skill is not the same. A particular player may be good playing close to the basket with his back to it (i.e. posting up). Another player may be better facing the basket, driving and slashing to get a good shot. Others may be good jump shooters able to hit shots from farther away.
This is all obvious, or it should be, yet it seems these fundamentals are often missed by the so called commentators.
Comments that imply that the Suns "don't play defense" seems ridiculous. If they win the game, obviously they played more defense than the team they beat. True it may be that the Suns offense skill offset the "greater" defensive prowess of the opposing team but who can say.
Obviously, I don't care how good your defense is if you can't score yourself.
The trick is that basketball is a two way sport. Unlike football, players must play both offense and defense. They don't have the luxury except at the end of a game with unused timeouts to try to substitute between positions to put in better defensive players on defense, and better offensive players on offense. They must choose a player whose net offense minus their net defense is a plus to the team. Of course, it gets a lot more complicated in that the net of the teams offense must be greater than the net of the teams defense (i.e. as 5 man unit do they outscore their opponent).
This means that they need players who will do enough to help their team get more attempts than their opponent, shoot better (taking better shots or with better skill) than their opponent.
Lots of things affect this, but psychology is probably the biggest factor. Teams that are winning tend to let down. Teams that are losing tend to try harder. The result is that even though you have completely different teams, with different players, talents, and team philosophies can play for 48 minutes and end tied or nearly so at the end.
Applying this to the Suns, we can easily see their success. They lead the league (or are near the top) in shooting percentage, three point shooting, and free throw percentages. This is a combination of getting high percentage shots from fast breaks (dunks to open uncontested jump shots) or from the great play making ability and unselfishness of their players. Defensively their opponents shoot an average percentage (actually as of today, they are in the top half of the league in opponent field goal percentage), but they often get more shot attempts because the Suns take shots quicker. This translates to their opponents scoring a lot of points, but look at the shooting percentage.
Against, Dallas the shooting percentage differences were amazing. Dallas was only in the game because they took an amazing 16 more shots than Phoenix.
This then seems to be the Achilles heel of the Suns standard style of play: defensive rebounding. Other teams can not beat the Suns typically on field goal percentage but they can beat them in the number of attempts.
The Suns can help themselves by forcing more turnovers and making steals, and cutting down on their own mistakes. Still they need to stay close in the rebounding stat. When they do, the other team is in big trouble.
This season the Suns have done a better job at defensive rebounding when Amare, Marion, and Kurt Thomas get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, D'Antoni has often failed to play Thomas sufficient minutes due to match ups or wanting to play faster. I think this is a mistake. Kurt Thomas has a positive net affect for his team by shoring up the rebounding and defensive side of the ball. Even though Kurt is not going to beat you down the court for a fast break, he can start a fast break by getting the rebound. If you look at 82games.com you will see his net affect on and off the court. I believe the numbers might be slightly lower due to who else is on the floor for some of his time.
Diaw has been getting Thomas' time, but his skills often over lap with Amare's and Steve's. He certainly can not make up for what Thomas brings to the table. His last several performances have been abysmal when it comes to rebounding.
Next time, I will pontificate on how I would handle the Sun's player rotation.
posted by A Forgiven Man at
10:00 PM
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