Basketball on the brain (Part Three)

The consensus is that the Suns don't play enough players, or even that they don't have a very deep (i.e. good) bench. Many commentators believe this is potential weakness that might keep the Suns away from the 1st Championship.

This time, I agree.

The Suns style is one predicated on an up tempo game, where they get out on a fast break and find a high percentage shot before the defense can get set. They believe that this will give them an advantage over the course of a game. If the pace is fast, the other team, not accustom to it, will make mistakes and even begin to wear out in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line.

Frankly, this is a brilliant strategy. It does require your players, though, to be in above average shape as they will be running up and down the court. They will not have the luxury of catching their breath as they fall into a half-court offense of isolation, standing around while a single player does all the work trying to get a shot or draw foul (which will allow them a little more standing around and resting).

Overall, this strategy has worked for the Suns. Often the other team runs with the Suns for as much as 3 quarters before fading in the 4th. Jump shots start falling short for them. I believe this happened to Dallas, and Dirk Nowitzki in their last match up. He was ineffective late as he played too many minutes at too great a pace.

The reality is, though, that regardless of how good a shape a player is in, they can use a rest during the action where they can catch their breath, maybe get a little input from the coaches or other players, and watch the game from a different vantage point.

The D'Antoni has tried several different players off the bench trying to find combinations that work. Until tonight's game he had settled on the following rotation:

Starters: Nash, Bell, Marion, Stoudemire, Diaw
Regular Subs: Barbosa, Thomas, James Jones
At the End of the Game: Nash, Barbosa, Marion, Stoudemire, Diaw

On paper, the End Game crew is probably the best overall offensive players on the team.

I think a problem with this approach is that players are often put in with guys they don't necessarily play with. The other guys on the bench often don't know from game to game if they will play or not. The ones that do, probably feel too much pressure to perform because they fear they will again be banished to the end of the bench. The starters end up playing too many minutes, which might explain the lulls during the game when they seem to slow down.

As I stated previously, I believe the Suns have a deep bench with many players that would be in the rotation of most teams in the league. It is a shame to wear out the starters, and perhaps get diminished returns from them during periods of the game, while capable players languish on the bench.

"But they are not as good as the starters" some might say. Maybe, but maybe not. Boris Diaw is only 2 years removed from riding the pine on the lowly Atlanta Hawks squad. Joe Johnson was not starting for the Celtics when the Suns acquired him. Obviously, guys on the bench can't put up any numbers without playing.

My premise, and again perhaps the consensus, is that bench players at full strength are more productive than a worn out starter. It also keeps them ready to step up with more minutes if someone fouls out or gets injured.

So that said, my recommended rotation would look like this:
1st Team: Nash, Bell, Marion, Stoudemire, and Thomas
2nd Team: Barbosa, James Jones*, Piatkowski*, Diaw, and Burke*
3rd Team: Nash, Barbosa, Marion, Stoudemire, Diaw/Thomas

* These players could be interchanged with Jumaine Jones, Jalen Rose, or Marcus Banks as needed.

I recommend them playing as follows:
1st/3rd Quarter: 1st Team - 8 minutes, 2nd Team 4 minutes
2nd/4th Quarter: 1st Team - 4 minutes, 2nd Team 4 minutes, 3rd Team 4 minutes

These numbers are only approximations, and I would probably flex between the 1st/3rd, and 2nd/4th schedule to see if one is better than the other, and perhaps stick with that.

I would also adjust the Teams playing time if they are doing well, or not so well. For example, if the 1st Team is lethargic and unproductive, I would probably bring in the 2nd Team sooner than the 8 minute mark. If the 2nd Team is padding the lead, I would probably leave them in longer.

The 3rd Team make-up could also be adjusted depending on how a particular player is playing that night. If Stoudemire is having a bad night, I would go with Diaw and Thomas in the 3rd Team instead of Stoudemire and Diaw.

I believe that the Suns need at least 2 players on the court that can generate offense for the team. I believe those players are: Nash, Barbosa, Diaw, and Stoudemire. I believe they also need to have 2-3 good outside shooters (Bell, Nash, Barbosa, James Jones, Piatkowski) on the court at all times. I also believe they need to have at least 1 player (Thomas and Burke) who is more our less dedicated to rebounding.

Thus, the division of players on the team. I also think splitting the teams could help some players get into a flow. In particular, I believe moving Diaw to the second team would allow him to come in knowing that he needs to be assertive for the team to be successful. I believe that he defers to Amare too much, when he plays with the rest of the 1st Team. Once he gets that attitude going in the game though, I believe he can be successful with them in a 3rd team scenario.

I would also try to motivate the teams to "compete" with one another. I would set goals to help them see their plus/minus when they are on the court. Are they outscoring the opponent, or are they being outscored? I think the players sometimes get content with a lead of 10pts instead, or pushing themselves to extend it.

How would the 2nd Team fare? I believe that a fresh Barbosa and Diaw could bring enough energy of offense off the bench for the 2nd group. If you surround them with excellent shooters, it will put the other team in a difficult place. I think adding Burke to that line up with give them someone who will be able to hold the line with Rebounding, and he is also a good outside shooter. If you want to go small or bigger, you might try replacing Burke or Piatkowski with Jumaine Jones, respectively. Or, you might try replacing Piatkowski with Jalen Rose, and let him post up the SF of SG that they put on him.

Anyway, I really like this idea for the Suns and would love to see them try it. I think having a fresh 2nd team would make their pace even faster, and it would force the other team to adjust to a completely different team. It would be almost like they have to prepare for 2 or 3 teams.

Great idea, but we will probably never know if it would work or not.

SIGH! Such is life.

Basketball on the brain (Part Two)

Last post I looked at my love for the Suns and their style of play. This time I would like to look at what I think makes for a winning basketball team.

Does defense win championships? Is offense only good for selling tickets?

Well, lets go back to the basics.

Q. How do you win a basketball game?
A. Score more points than the other team. Winning by 1 pt or 50 pts still counts as a win.

Q. How can we break down this concept of scoring?
A. Commonly we break it down by the simple formula of:

Attempts x Field Goal % = Points Scored

Actually, with three pointers and foul shots the calculation gets a little more complicated but would look something like:

(Free Throw Attempts x Free Throw %) + ((2 pt Attempts x 2 pt Field Goal %) x 2pts) + ((3 pt Attempts x 2pt Field Goal %) x 3pts) = Total Points scored

Q. How can the number of attempts affected?
A. The default game would have each team get 1 attempt for every attempt of the opponent.

The following factors cause this to deviate in every game:

• Clock management at the end of quarters might mean 1 team has an additional possession.
• The shot clock expiration may reduce attempts.
• Rebounds mean more attempts.
• Steals and forced turnovers mean more attempts.
• Offensive fouls mean less attempts.
• Shot blocks may mean less attempts. (NOTE: blocking a shot helps by keeping the ball away from the basket, but unless the blocking team recovers the ball or one of the other factors kick in the offensive team will still have an attempt)

Q. How can the shooting percentage be affected?
A. The two key factors here is shot selection and the skill of the player taking the shot. By shot selection, I mean that certain types of shots are easier than other types of shots. For example, a dunk or uncontested layup is close to 100% at the NBA level. The shot selection degrades the further away from the basket the shot is taken, and by the obstacles that are in the way of getting the shot off (meaning the defensive presence).

Offenses can improve the shot selection by getting moving the ball to players in better positions to take shots. Often this translates into hustle with and without the ball, footwork, positioning, and passing.

Skill is also obviously a factor. That skill like most can get honed by practice. Stature and athletic ability certainly help or hinder the skill of the player taking the shot. All skill is not the same. A particular player may be good playing close to the basket with his back to it (i.e. posting up). Another player may be better facing the basket, driving and slashing to get a good shot. Others may be good jump shooters able to hit shots from farther away.

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This is all obvious, or it should be, yet it seems these fundamentals are often missed by the so called commentators.

Comments that imply that the Suns "don't play defense" seems ridiculous. If they win the game, obviously they played more defense than the team they beat. True it may be that the Suns offense skill offset the "greater" defensive prowess of the opposing team but who can say.

Obviously, I don't care how good your defense is if you can't score yourself.

The trick is that basketball is a two way sport. Unlike football, players must play both offense and defense. They don't have the luxury except at the end of a game with unused timeouts to try to substitute between positions to put in better defensive players on defense, and better offensive players on offense. They must choose a player whose net offense minus their net defense is a plus to the team. Of course, it gets a lot more complicated in that the net of the teams offense must be greater than the net of the teams defense (i.e. as 5 man unit do they outscore their opponent).

This means that they need players who will do enough to help their team get more attempts than their opponent, shoot better (taking better shots or with better skill) than their opponent.

Lots of things affect this, but psychology is probably the biggest factor. Teams that are winning tend to let down. Teams that are losing tend to try harder. The result is that even though you have completely different teams, with different players, talents, and team philosophies can play for 48 minutes and end tied or nearly so at the end.

Applying this to the Suns, we can easily see their success. They lead the league (or are near the top) in shooting percentage, three point shooting, and free throw percentages. This is a combination of getting high percentage shots from fast breaks (dunks to open uncontested jump shots) or from the great play making ability and unselfishness of their players. Defensively their opponents shoot an average percentage (actually as of today, they are in the top half of the league in opponent field goal percentage), but they often get more shot attempts because the Suns take shots quicker. This translates to their opponents scoring a lot of points, but look at the shooting percentage.

Against, Dallas the shooting percentage differences were amazing. Dallas was only in the game because they took an amazing 16 more shots than Phoenix.

This then seems to be the Achilles heel of the Suns standard style of play: defensive rebounding. Other teams can not beat the Suns typically on field goal percentage but they can beat them in the number of attempts.

The Suns can help themselves by forcing more turnovers and making steals, and cutting down on their own mistakes. Still they need to stay close in the rebounding stat. When they do, the other team is in big trouble.

This season the Suns have done a better job at defensive rebounding when Amare, Marion, and Kurt Thomas get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, D'Antoni has often failed to play Thomas sufficient minutes due to match ups or wanting to play faster. I think this is a mistake. Kurt Thomas has a positive net affect for his team by shoring up the rebounding and defensive side of the ball. Even though Kurt is not going to beat you down the court for a fast break, he can start a fast break by getting the rebound. If you look at 82games.com you will see his net affect on and off the court. I believe the numbers might be slightly lower due to who else is on the floor for some of his time.

Diaw has been getting Thomas' time, but his skills often over lap with Amare's and Steve's. He certainly can not make up for what Thomas brings to the table. His last several performances have been abysmal when it comes to rebounding.

Next time, I will pontificate on how I would handle the Sun's player rotation.

Basketball on the brain

I'm a big Phoenix Suns fan. I have been for a long time, but my interest renewed and went to another level when Phoenix resigned Steve Nash 3 years ago. I always thought Nash would be a great player since he was backing up Kevin Johnson and Jason Kidd. I was bummed when they traded him. Of course, his game blossomed in Dallas. After enduring a stretch with Jason Kidd, whose hustle and game I love but who is not a great shooter, and Stephon Marbury, who is more of a scorer than a true point guard, I was thrilled with the pickup of Nash. I thought he would be a great complement to Amare, Marion, and Joe Johnson but it amazed me how quickly things went to a new level, and it became a pleasure to watch them play.

If you remember 3 years ago we were looking at a league enamored with the "offensive" offense of the East Coast, where you would see a final score in the 70's. The offense was about isolation, and hoping to draw a foul. One guy would hold the ball and the other 4 players would stay out of the way so that the rest of the defense couldn't easily help out the defending player. If the defense did double-team, the offense might have to take an outside shot which they missed more than they made. It was boring basketball.

Granted this is an over-generalization. After all Nash and the Mavericks, and the Kings played a more entertaining style, but it seemed things were heading down, not up. Things changed when the Nash-ified Suns burned up the league two years ago. It was a breath of fresh air which attracted people.

That breath of fresh air lasted, and perhaps even strengthened last year when they duplicated their ride to the Western Conference finals without their dominating interior player, Amare, and their new defensive stopper, Kurt Thomas. They seemed to play faster and smaller than the year before which seemed impossible.

This year was heralded as another potential championship year. The question marks coming into the season was how would the loss of Tim Thomas, and the addition of Amare Stoudemire would effect the team that was so successful the year before. They stumbled out of the blocks, before blasting off to eventually peak with the best record in the league (as a winning percentage), shortly before the All-Star break.

Tim Thomas' contribution might have been a nice to have, and might have held down a place in D'Antoni's short rotation, but obviously the Suns were able to get along fine without him. I always thought that Tim Thomas, as most players, really benefited from the Suns system. It made him look better than he would look anywhere else. Perhaps that is an under appreciated side-effect of their system.

Amare has returned with a vengeance, with his best game coming recently in the double overtime win in Dallas, where he scored 41 points and only missed a few shots. He has also shown signs of being a defensive presence, shot blocker, and strong rebounder.

Of course, naysayers still abound. Defense wins championships, we are told. The Suns style will work during the regular season but will fail in the playoffs when the pace slows to a half-court struggle.

Not to mention the fact that as hot as the Suns have been, they still trail the Mavericks by five losses, and have not been very successful against the elite teams of the the league. The Spurs, Jazz, and Pistons certainly are looking like championship caliber teams.

Still I believe that the Suns have the best team in the league. They have the best point guard and 2 time league MVP in Steve Nash. They have one of the most dominant big men in the game, who is only likely to keep getting better in Amare Stoudemire. They have the best utility player in the league who deserves the title of Best Defensive Player in the league, in Shawn Marion. They have one of the top 6th in the league in Leandro Barbosa, who also is getting better in better. When he is on, there is no way to guard him. They have the best passing big man in the game in Boris Diaw, who has the potential to dominate a game by scoring and passing (though we have only seen glimpses this year of the greatest he displayed last year). They have one of the best low post defenders in the game in Kurt Thomas. Then they have pretty much 4-5 other players that would be starting or in the rotation of most other teams in the league sitting on the bench.

The weapons are there. The potential is there. Key players seem to have the desire to get it done. They are a great shooting team: free throws, jump shots, and three pointers. Occasionally, off nights happen but there is no stopping them when they are on.

People have been counting them out for the last 3 years, and they have overcome. Let downs are human. Getting bored with the NBA's ridiculously long season is human. They realize more now than before that the regular season is really a long pre-season to the playoffs. Top seeding is nice but not necessary.

Do they have a shot? Yes. Will they win? Only God knows at this point.

As good as any team may look on paper, chance or providence affects everyone.

Ecclesiastes 9:11 (New King James Version)

11 I returned and saw under the sun that—

The race is not to the swift,
Nor the battle to the strong,
Nor bread to the wise,
Nor riches to men of understanding,
Nor favor to men of skill;
But time and chance happen to them all.